Market complacency
For years there was a leadership vacuum in the West, exemplified by the unwillingness of politicians to address the problems laid bare in 2008, and the passing of the policy baton to unelected central bankers. [...]
Trump – calmer reflection, and opportunities
“The problems of victory are more agreeable than those of defeat, but they are no less difficult” (Winston Churchill) A large number of voters want change, and that is the Trump mandate – change. That [...]
Trump slump or boom? UK investor implications
The “Brexit effect” has continued across the Atlantic. In the US, the alienated have again triumphed over the uninspired and the self-interested. It is important that UK investors understand the implications: The Trump mandate is [...]
UK stock market – both swirling risks and opportunities
We probably spend more time reviewing the UK stock market than any other because it is the largest holding for most clients, and the UK economy drives their employment and broader financial prospects. Here is [...]
What is helicopter money? (Part II)
In the last few days Japan has announced a $45bn package of what is effectively “helicopter money”. In coming months we hope (pray!?) for similar in the UK. Here’s how it might work. Emergency action [...]
What is helicopter money? (Part I)
Helicopter money is coming. This is a very significant change which will have a huge impact for years to come. Here we explain what it is. For those in the UK over age 40 it [...]
Of Russia, Versailles, and cheap UK equities
Whether your investment choices make any money, and how much, will be driven by a mix of valuation and confidence. Russian equities are an extreme example. They are ridiculously cheap, at a 50% discount [...]
Property Funds Update: Panic, Herding, and Opportunity
“Property funds in turmoil” screams the Guardian headline today. This is nonsense. Here is some perspective. First some high level observations. After the Brexit vote stock markets fell sharply but quickly regained their poise. The [...]
Brexit: Investment implications of Democratic Hooliganism
A summary of the investment implications, with an emphasis on the opportunities, is set out below. A quick recap... In January 2011 (TopFunds Guide) I said: “There is a race, with the bureaucrats and politicians [...]
Parallels with 1987?
Last month we covered US over-valuation, and events since demand more comment. On many previous occasions we have highlighted something called CAPE (cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio) as an indicator of stock market value. In [...]