Market Commentary

/Market Commentary

With markets calm, the risks aren’t in the headlines

Trade wars. “No deal” Brexit. More Russian sanctions. Italexit. Interest rates up. Turkey in turmoil – more important than you might think, with European banks very exposed. You would be forgiven for thinking we’re all [...]

From Emperor Trump to Lewisham East via Qingdao

It has been a fascinating week across a range of largely political rather than investment issues.  But the political back-drop continues to cast a big light on the investment outlook.  Here’s a ramble around the [...]

Blighty versus Italy

In March our headline was “Trump, Italy, and Putin raise temperature”. Plus ça change. Donald Trump raises most people’s temperature most days. In recent 6 monthly client reports we highlighted the growing risk of cyber [...]

Trump, Italy & Putin raise temperature – and don’t forget your ISA!

In our commentary at the end of January (Opportunity Knocks or Apocalypse Postponed?) we set out a blueprint for markets in the 12-24 months ahead. The ink was barely dry when the markets had their first wobble [...]

Opportunity Knocks or Apocalypse Postponed? Probably both

The December blog was a tad gloomy, “Investing in The Age Of Radical Uncertainty”. To cheer you up before the close of January here is a blueprint for the (still to come) craziest bull market [...]

Investing in the Age of Radical Uncertainty

In so many ways we appear to be living through history. It is the impact on the markets which concerns us, where behaviour in many markets is measurably and visibly extreme, from the US stock [...]

A Serious Story With Some Bizarre Players

Today is the 30th anniversary of The Great Storm in 1987 – the famous one that the BBC weatherman (Michael Fish) denied would happen. Sadly there were 13 deaths in the south east of England. [...]

1987 Great Crash – 30th Anniversary

PART 1: The years before 1987 The 1980s was a time of recovery, for markets in particular and capitalism generally. In contrast, the 1970s for the UK had been a time of huge turbulence, politically, [...]

The Middling Revolution, China and Trump

Think of this as a part II of the earlier March of the Robots, reflecting on a (people) revolution which will drive this century, and inspire and incentivise the march of extraordinary new technology. It [...]

Happy 3rd Anniversary, India & Mr Modi

The 3rd anniversary of the election result which crowned Narendra Modi as Indian Prime Minister was this week (16th May). He was given a huge mandate and promised sweeping reforms for the world’s biggest democracy. [...]